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how to launch right

the docket documents; it doesn't pick winners. but the research on what separates the 0.2% of launches that survive from the rest is public, and pretending it isn't helps nobody. none of this feeds any score. none of this is financial advice.

the five things the data actually supports

  1. have the community BEFORE the token. launches with a live telegram + x + website at t-zero graduate at up to ~17x the rate of bare launches. a sticker pack with real installs is a community that already exists — that's the whole thesis of the launch score.
  2. skin in the game. creators who buy into their own launch meaningfully (not dust) roughly triple graduation odds. if the creator won't hold it, why would anyone else.
  3. full float, fair launch, no unlock overhang. the memecoins that ran biggest launched 100% circulating. locked allocations waiting to dump are the structural sell pressure that kills charts.
  4. distribution beats marketing. wide, earned distribution (airdrops to real users, community mints) built the TON giants — but conviction beats headcount: 300M mercenary farmers sold everything; a smaller community that believes holds the line.
  5. watch your own concentration. top-10 holders above ~30% of supply is the single strongest death predictor in the literature. the docket flags it publicly — so fix it before we do.

launching a token on a pack you don't own?

respect the artist. the packs with the strongest lore were made by real people — credit them, don't fake their endorsement (the docket verifies and files false attribution claims on the public record), and consider routing something back to them. after launch: suggest the link to glowie so the docket can verify and file it. creators can /confirm — the seal is free and it's the strongest trust signal we issue.

sources: the full valuation-research digest lives in the project's evidence census. base rate worth respecting: ~0.2% of launchpad tokens graduate; ~0.005% reach $1M. the docket's job is making sure the right 0.2% is findable. see also the rubric.